Future of Autonomous Vehicles

Overview

There are great expectations around the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and equally much uncertainty. Some believe that AVs will transform safety and efficiency and are making significant investments in this area. Others are concerned that the technological developments are outpacing society’s ability to adapt, and there is an urgent requirement to develop better regulation before there is widespread deployment. A global Open Foresight project exploring the key issues for the future of AVs is being undertaken by Future Agenda. Expert workshops around the world are building the informed view.

Download the interim report

This interim report shares the findings from the first five expert discussions in Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Singapore, Wellington and Melbourne. It highlights the emerging issues that are the source of major debate around the world. These include the impact of regulation; the ambition for less congestion; rethinking transport planning; the first/last mile challenge; the opportunities for automated freight and the need for more and better data sharing.

Future of Autonomous - report

Download the initial perspective

This project was kicked-off with a global review of the emerging landscape for autonomous vehicles. As well looking at the historical context for self-driving cars and trucks, this initial perspective explores the benefits of AVs; different issues for the movement of people vs. goods; the three primary drivers of adoption and the primary centres for innovation. It also includes commentary on the parallel developments in seaborne and air-based autonomous vehicles. It ends with some of the key questions to be explored by the project.

Future of Autonomous - report

Presentations

Interim Report Presentation

This is an accompanying presentation being used for public conferences and briefings within organisations. It provides a summary of the research and highlights some key insights. It is available to download both as a PDF and also to view on SlideShare.

Download PDF   View on SlideShare

Initial Perspective Presentation

This is the presentation version of the initial perspective used as the starting point for the global project.

Download PDF   View on SlideShare

Partners

Locations and Key Insights

Insights world map Map marker

Source KPMG

  • Top 25 AV Ready Nations

Los Angeles

28.03.2019

Top 3 Challenges

  1. Inadequate Harmonisation
  2. Rethinking Planning
  3. Common Standards

Top 3 Opportunities

  1. Mobility as a Service
  2. Public Private Partnerships
  3. First / Last Mile

Top 3 Issues

  1. Deeper Collaboration
  2. Social Impact
  3. Data Connectivity

Frankfurt

22.05.2019

Top 3 Challenges

  1. Common Standards
  2. Inadequate Harmonisation
  3. More Congestion

Top 3 Opportunities

  1. Truck Automation
  2. Incentives for Collaboration
  3. First / Last Mile

Top 3 Issues

  1. Communication between Systems
  2. Acceptance of Accidents
  3. Cyber Security Risks

Singapore

07.06.2019

Top 3 Challenges

  1. Data Sharing
  2. Inadequate Harmonisation
  3. Security Systems

Top 3 Opportunities

  1. Robo Taxis
  2. Truck Automation
  3. Urban Delivery

Top 3 Issues

  1. Environmental Impact
  2. Insurance and Liability
  3. Less vs More Congestion

Wellington

11.06.2019

Top 3 Challenges

  1. Data Sharing
  2. Security Systems
  3. Common Standards

Top 3 Opportunities

  1. Rethinking Planning
  2. Remote Support Centres
  3. First / Last Mile

Top 3 Issues

  1. Social Equity
  2. AV is Public Transport
  3. MaaS

Melbourne

13.06.2019

Top 3 Challenges

  1. Data Sharing
  2. More Congestions
  3. Security Systems

Top 3 Opportunities

  1. Full Truck Automation
  2. First / Last Mile
  3. Robo-taxi Model

Top 3 Issues

  1. Reimagining Planning
  2. Safety of AV
  3. ROI

Road Deaths per 100,000 Citizens (WHO, 2018)

Total
Australia5.6
Germany4.1
New Zealand7.8
Singapore3.6
USA12.4
Canada5.8
China18.2
India22.6
Israel4.2
Japan4.1
S Korea9.8
Sweden2.8
South Africa3.6
UAE18.1
UK3.1

News

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The perspective on the future Autonomous Vehicles from one of the leading centres of activity.

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About Future Agenda

Future Agenda runs the world’s largest open foresight programme and provides strategic advice to leading organisations globally. In 2010 and 2015 we undertook major worldwide research leading hundreds of expert workshops across over 20 topics. The insights from these discussions have been shared online and in two major publications – 'The World in 2020' and ' The World in 2025 '.

Each year, the Future Agenda team undertakes in-depth global open foresight research projects on key themes of interest. In 2016 the focus was the Future of Cities . In 2017 it was the Future of Philanthropy and the Future of Patient Data . For 2018 the focus was the Future Value of Data and the Future of Digital Identity. Alongside Autonomous Vehicles, other topics for 2019 are the Future of Digital Education and the Future of Land Use. All our research is openly shared under the Creative Commons Non-Commercial license.